The 2024 election cycle was complex, to say the least. Many Democrats felt they put everything into campaigning, while others went into Election Day with apprehension. Though the focus has understandably shifted to the chaos Donald Trump is causing from the White House, we cannot lose sight of campaigning for the 2026 election cycle. We need to change our campaign strategy to get key wins across the country- from national to local positions. To win across the board in 2026, Democrats need to do something different, as 2024 campaign efforts nationally and statewide were clearly underwhelming. During the upcoming cycle, campaigns should focus on elastic voters along with typical Democratic voters. 

The definition of swing voter is assumed to mean “a voter who could swing either way,” which undersells the voter demographic (Mayer 2). The term voter elasticity is typically used to describe how irregular a county’s voting patterns are, which is then used as a proxy for how much voters in this county may swing (Jain). Elastic voters, by my definition, are those who vote based on political and social contexts, in addition to, or regardless of party affiliation; they vote based on certain issues or candidates. Combining swing voters and elastic voters allows us to consider the societal implications on voters and elections, which cannot and should not be divorced. Democratic candidates need to focus campaign efforts on elastic voters to secure victories in the 2026 election cycle, capitalizing on all the voters alienated by the Trump administration and right wing Republicans and the harm they’re doing.

Defining Swing Voters

Swing voters are not committed to voting for one candidate or another, or one party or another; they may be pulled between the two or repulsed by both. Swing voters are (often) less partisan, more moderate (Mayer 23), and less informed or interested in politics (Mayer 24). These elementary definitions lack nuance and context, which is exactly why elastic voters should be used as an evolution of swing voters and leveraged to the advantage of the Democratic Party. 

Campaigning to swing voters is an investment. Less partisan and/or more moderate voters need campaigning efforts to outline why a vote for a Democratic candidate is overall the right choice regardless of party. Uninterested or uninformed voters need campaigns to meet them where they are, informing them of the tangible impact of their vote. Previous arguments have been made that undecided voters and swing voters are different in their likelihood of voter turnout, but Blue Rose Research’s 2024 data shows that swing, unlikely, and undecided voters share similar views and do not need to be targeted separately for campaign purposes (Blue Rose Research 24). 

A candidate cannot win on swing voters alone, so swing voters typically impact elections by padding a win. Candidates who win their base and swing voters often have a higher likelihood of winning their elections. Though swing votes are not necessary to win elections, swing voters could be a worthwhile voter population to tap into as we devise plans to beat Republicans. Swing and other disengaged voters often lean conservative (Blue Rose Research 5), so campaigning to this population could be crucial in 2026. The swing voter population can be winnable by expanding it, modernizing swing voters to elastic voters, and creating a new, hopefully winnable voter demographic: a voter who votes based on political context, campaigns, and calls to action.

Modernizing Swing to Elastic Voters 

Swing voters can be seen as disloyal or disconnected; redefining these folks enfranchises them and allows them to have political impact. Elastic voters may or may not have a party affiliation (one of the main two or another) because their vote is much more motivated by political issues and contexts, from single issues (like the economy) to larger topics (the threats on our democracy from US politicians, for example). Merriam-Webster says “elasticity” is “the quality of being adaptable” (Definition), and the definition of voter elasticity is fluid for this reason.

Types of Elastic Voters: Identity, Party Affiliation, and Voter Types

Race is not an indicator of political party. NBC’s exit polls show 86% of Black voters voted for Harris/Walz, by far the biggest racial split. Other races have much closer splits: 51% of Latino voters voted for Harris/Walz and 46% voted for Trump/Vance (National Exit Polls). Blue Rose Research reports moderate Hispanic voters had the largest Republican swing of 12% from ‘20 to ‘24, while Black conservative voters only swung 2% more Republican in the same time frame, for example (Blue Rose Research, 4). Racial minorities can be elastic voters because they have complex identities, and balancing these may lead to voting differently from election to election. Grouping all racial minorities into one population for the sake of campaigning is a mistake, but worse is not campaigning to the needs of any racial minorities at all.

Youth votes are typically seen as swing votes because of the rhetoric that young people are too young or unaware to care about politics, but Gen Z is fighting this conservative narrative; there is no age requirement for political interest. Youth voters, 18 to 29, are often developing their own beliefs and morals at a pivotal time in their life, making them clear elastic voters. Statistics show youth voters make up around 14% (National Exit Polls) to 15% (US Census) of the voting population. Youth voters must show up to the polls, as well as mobilize, organize, protest, and be politically active to make our voices heard.

Though elastic voters vote based on political context, political parties can still play a role in their voting. In the 2026 election cycle, there will be voters unwilling to vote for the Republican Party because of how it has been affected by Donald Trump, among other reasons, and if Democrats can campaign effectively to them, we will swing votes in our direction- even if just short term. Moderates, independents, small party identifiers, and even Republicans may consider voting for a Democrat, and while these voters may not want to switch their party affiliation, there are folks who will vote for Democrats if they are effectively campaigned to.

Single issue voters could be mobilized because of the current states of the economy, immigration, and more. The difference between elastic voters and issue based voters is the latter tends to vote on one issue, be that abortion or Medicare or any other political topic, whereas elastic voters have a more holistic view on choosing who to vote for. Issue based voters are a type of elastic voters, and many seem open to casting a vote for Democrats because of the declining states of the economy, employment rates, war, and more in the first few months of Trump’s second term.

Potential elastic voters are those not registered to vote and inactive registered voters: “In the 2024 presidential election, 73.6% (or 174 million people) of the citizen voting-age population was registered to vote and 65.3% (or 154 million people) voted according to [...] the U.S. Census Bureau.” The former population will be hard to tap into: voter registration will likely never be 100% nationwide, but there is still work to be done to register more Americans to vote and encourage them to cast their ballots. The long-standing idea that politics don’t impact peoples’ day to day lives is shifting, and this and other political issues may be enough to encourage folks to register to vote. The latter inactive voters need to be mobilized to vote, which seems easier but will be hard fought; while the initial challenge of registering to vote is done, the challenge of getting people to cast their ballot is another battle. In most states voting can be done by mail, early, or in person, so the time required to vote plays less of a factor, but voter eligibility and registration concerns may keep people away from the ballot box. Continuing to make voter registration and voting more accessible makes these elastic voters more likely to turnout.

Campaigning to Elastic Voters

Most elastic voters will make their decision over the course of the campaign cycle, so an effective campaign is crucial to winning these votes. Whether a voter decides who to vote for from the day a campaign effort launches to the day of the election, the campaign trail can win, maintain, and lose votes constantly. If Democrats want to win elastic voters, they need to be prioritized all throughout the campaign cycle. 

Social media is a fantastic, modern tool to reach voters of all demographics. This campaigning tends to be cost effective and impactful, a worthy campaign investment. An issue that can arise that we saw in ‘24 is the construction of echo chambers. My friends and I experienced this on Tik Tok: every political video we saw was pro-Kamala and had millions of likes and views. These people were not the majority according to the popular vote, and voter turnout was low according to Census statistics. There is no clear cut, singular way to formulate social media campaigns because the whole concept is new, but remembering algorithms can work both for and against a campaign is crucial. Elastic voters, like those who are politically engaged, are inundated with campaign content and messaging, so the content that reaches them needs to be effective without overstepping.

Campaign engagement is great, but it all amounts to nothing if the ballot count falls short. Campaign efforts are intended to explain who a candidate is, their ideology, and how they plan to represent their constituents, but campaigns cannot overlook that these constituents then need to vote them into office, not just like their Facebook posts or attend meet and greet events. Voter mobilization and turnout should be a central campaign function, especially to elastic voters who may not know when Election Day is, where or how to vote, how to register to vote, and what is on their ballot.

Timing is crucial in all elections and this was a major misstep in the 2024 presidential campaign cycle. Former VP Kamala Harris essentially ran a 100 day presidential campaign- insufficient time to say the least. If Democrats want to win, campaigns need to be hard fought, exhaustive, and figure headed by someone personable, trustworthy, and who has the time to build exemplary credibility. While Former VP Harris was able to easily build this connection with Democrats who were already familiar with her, elastic voters were not given enough time to connect with Former VP Harris in contrast to the figurehead Donald Trump has constructed for himself over decades. Relying on voters to simply vote for the candidate who wasn’t Trump was ineffective because their confidence in the alternative choice, Former VP Harris, could not be built in just 100 days.

The Trump Card

For the last decade, we have seen anti-Trump Republicans, and this has not changed since Trump’s re-election. Voters who are anti-Trump may still vote for the Republican Party simply because they feel alienated by Democrats, so our campaigns must be all-encompassing. Elastic voters include the anti-Trump Republican, the moderate who leans left, the moderate who leans right and is unhappy with Trump, and so on. This splits the voter population not just into blue and red, but rather red, blue, and unsure (elastic).

Walking the line between running anti-Trump campaigns and running pro-Democratic candidate campaigns will not be easy, though. Campaigns with Donald Trump as their single issue have their pros and cons: while it affirms to Democrats the candidate will not be complacent, it may scare off elastic voters who are considering switching their vote but are not yet convinced. Running a smear campaign can be a pro or a con depending on the voter and the context of the smearing. On the other hand, though, Trump cannot be avoided on the campaign trail as he holds the most powerful position in the nation. Not condoning Trump can be seen as an endorsement, and therefore candidates are stuck between a rock (condemning Trump) and a hard place (disregarding Trump).

There are many Trump tactics with different levels of efficacy: pointedly campaigning against Trump, letting Trump’s actions speak for themselves, only addressing Trump issues when prompted, and more. I cannot argue for one method over another, but voters appreciate consistency: if a campaign launches with anti-Trump messaging, it needs to hold true to this through the campaign, and campaigns who pointedly do not want to address Trump should be consistent about this. Campaign consistency ensures voters know exactly who they’re voting for.

Don’t Forget the Dems

Democratic campaigns cannot lose sight of the value of the Democratic vote. Democrats lose elections when Democrats don’t vote; we need our base mobilized and engaged, and we cannot work on the assumption these votes are guaranteed. Democrats are facing a lack of support within our own party; true blue Dems are unhappy with representatives voting with Republicans, the lack of action taken to oust Trump, or simply the Democratic Party as a collective. Elastic voters help win an election, but candidates cannot win without the support of the party. On airplanes you put on your own oxygen mask before you help someone else; we need to secure our own party before we look to others. Democrats need to be assured they aren’t just voting for the candidate with a “D” next to their name, but they are voting for the most competent and qualified candidate who will accurately represent both their interests and disinterests. 

Fired Up, Ready to Go

In his 2008 presidential campaign, Former President Barack Obama borrowed a call and response from Edith Childs, an NAACP leader in South Carolina: “Fired up?” “Ready to go!” The Democratic Party is fired up for the 2026 election cycle, ready to make changes and collect big wins, so we need to get ready to go. We need to work together as a unit, create dynamic and impactful campaign tactics, and shoot for the stars. We need to pull out all the tricks this election cycle, from ole reliable to tactics never tried before. No stone should be left unturned, and no voter- especially elastic voters- should be neglected. This election will impact the state of our democracy, so let’s get fired up and ready to go win.

References:

• Blue Rose Research. 2024 Retrospective and Looking Forward. https://tinyurl.com/2d8pdne3. Accessed 19 June 2025.

• Bureau, US Census. 2024 Presidential Election Voting and Registration Tables. Census.Gov, https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2025/2024-presidential-election-voting-registration-tables.html. Accessed 19 June 2025.

• Definition of ELASTICITY. 16 June 2025, https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/elasticity.

• Jain, Lakshya. Elasticity in Swing States. Sabato’s Crystal Ball, 28 Oct. 2020, https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/elasticity-in-swing-states/. Accessed 19 June 2025.

• Mayer, William G. What Exactly Is a Swing Voter?: Definition and Measurement. The Swing Voter in American Politics, edited by WILLIAM G. MAYER, Brookings Institution Press, 2008, pp. 1–31. JSTOR, http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7864/j.ctt6wpdsm.4. Accessed 19 June 2025.

• National Exit Polls: Election 2024 Results. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/exit-polls. Accessed 19 June 2025.

• US Census. Reported Voting and Registration, by Sex and Single Years of Age: November 2024. Excel Sheet, Apr. 2025, https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/voting-and-registration/p20-587.html. Accessed 19 June 2025.