In 2024, Alaskans marked their 15th consecutive presidential election supporting the Republican nominee, voting for Donald Trump by 13.1 points. Alaska has long been seen as a red state — in the past fifty years, it has only once elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate, in 2008. But this year, in a shocking turn of events, Democrats’ path to the Senate majority appears to run through the state — and they may be favored to win. 

The Democrat frontrunner, Mary Peltola, outperformed Kamala Harris by more than 10% in 2024, only narrowly losing re-election to the House of Representatives. Now, incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, whom Trump has endorsed, is trailing in the polls in a red state, while Peltola leads by 6% in the latest polls. Alaska is in play, and Democrats must seize this opportunity. 

In 2024, President Donald J. Trump was re-elected to a second term with a majority of the popular vote, helping Republicans retain control of the House of Representatives and take back the Senate in a campaign focused on then-President Joe Biden’s age, unpopular foreign policy, and poor perceived handling of the economy. But 17 months into their unified control of the federal government, Republicans have failed to address Americans’ affordability concerns as they undermined democracy, slashed environmental regulations and taxes for their wealthy donors, and blundered their way into calamitous foreign entanglements in Venezuela and Iran. With many clamoring for the revival of congressional oversight into the Trump administration, Democrats seem poised to make major gains in November’s midterm elections.

In the House of Representatives, where opposition parties typically make significant gains in midterm elections, Republicans hold a razor-thin majority with no room for error; most observers expect Democrats to flip control of the chamber, ending the Republican trifecta. In the Senate, however, Democrats are fighting an uphill battle, as almost all the swing-state seats up for election in 2026 have Democratic incumbents. To win the chamber, Democrats would need to flip seats in traditionally red states while defending their vulnerable incumbents in purple Georgia and Michigan. 

A year ago, this may have been nearly impossible. However, as the political and economic climate becomes more hostile against the incumbent Republican administration, polling in key battleground states indicates a heavy swing towards Democrats with each passing day. Democrats have gained significant ground in Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine, making these key battleground states tossups. Even in states like Texas and Ohio, where President Trump won by a sizable majority, Republicans appear to be floundering while Democrats ride the coattails of national sentiment. 

These key upcoming Senate races illustrate the importance of pragmatic candidate selection in competitive states. If Democrats can once again learn to support moderates and unconventional candidates in heavily Republican areas, they have a shot not only at pulling off a historic upset in 2026 but also at maintaining a more viable political coalition in the neglected working-class areas of the US going forward.

Mary Peltola may not be a typical Democratic messenger — but in Alaska, she has a proven track record. She served as the U.S. representative of Alaska’s at-large congressional district from 2022 to 2025, defeating Republican Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III in an upset victory under Alaska’s new ranked-choice voting system. Peltola is the most recent and only Democrat to have won statewide office in Alaska since 2008. As a member of the Blue Dog Coalition, her centrism has broad appeal across Democrats, Independents, and moderate Republicans across Alaska. Now, Peltola is running as a Democrat in the Alaska Senate race, gaining momentum as Alaskans become frustrated by worsening inflation, which is negatively impacting the quality of life with rising grocery and energy prices, while housing becomes increasingly unaffordable. 

Peltola’s campaign slogan, “Fish, Family, and Freedom,” is a unique message that highlights Alaska's distinctiveness from the mainland U.S. Peltola understands that while the Senate race has national ramifications for policymaking and legislative priorities, electability is the most essential quality of any candidate. Thus, catering to her constituency with specific targeted messaging is appropriate rather than being bogged down in polarizing debates over national issues irrelevant to Alaska.

Fisheries management is an Alaska-specific issue that resonates in a state where seafood is the largest export after oil and gas. Issues such as sustainable fishing practices are crucial to supporting the long-term economic health of numerous Alaskan coastal towns, where fisheries are the sole employers. In an election year, the economy is always the focal point. By attributing economic stability and prosperity to environmental protections, Peltola aims to address a core policy issue for the Democratic Party while remaining in touch with average Alaskans' basic quality-of-life concerns. 

Peltola understands the reality that the average voter will rarely sacrifice economic growth for environmental protection. Peltola does not mention the oil and gas industry, which is actually the largest sector of the Alaskan economy, but emphasizes fishing in her central campaign platform. To avoid an ideological clash with the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, Peltola acknowledges the need to toe the party line on environmental protection and climate change policies. She requires the support of the Democratic Party, including all its progressive and moderate camps. 

However, Peltola must consider the political context in which her candidacy is situated. As a Democrat running in a solid Republican state, Peltola will require the support of independents and disgruntled moderate Republicans. Her centrist strategy is not a performative stunt for the sake of bipartisanship to improve her optics, but necessary politics. If Peltola wishes to defeat Sullivan this November, she requires a coalition of the willing that includes Republican voters who may defect from party lines due to frustration against President Trump and his perceived economic failures. 

In a state with a jungle primary and ranked-choice voting, Peltola is the strongest challenger to Sullivan, having demonstrated her electability through winning a special election to become the first Democrat since 1972 to hold Alaska's sole House seat. Since the passage of Measure 2 in the 2020 Alaska elections, Alaska has used a nonpartisan primary, or jungle primary, with two rounds of voting since the 2022 election cycle. The first round consists of all candidates running for the same elected office competing simultaneously, regardless of political party. Afterward, the top four candidates advance to a general election, using ranked-choice voting. In the usual closed partisan primary, the strategy is to consolidate and mobilize your core base. To do so may mean taking stronger positions on issues that may be unpopular in the general election but energize your party. However, all voters are allowed to participate in a nonpartisan primary, and thus there is no need to pander to the party’s extremes. 

The optimal strategy is to leverage the structure of ranked-choice voting, where ranked preferences rather than first-past-the-post voting determine election outcomes. A candidate does not necessarily require a strong majority of voters to support them, but they do require a sizable share of voters to find them tolerable. Let's say in the general election, Peltola and Sullivan advance, which is a highly likely scenario. 35% of Alaskans select Peltola as their first choice, and 45% select Sullivan. While Sullivan may have a larger and more enthusiastic voter base, since neither received a majority, second-choice votes will decide the election. If 25% of Alaskans select Peltola as their second choice and 10% select Sullivan, Peltola will be the stronger candidate as a tolerable option across the wider political spectrum.

Overall, Democrats need to understand the importance of running strong candidates in appropriate environments. Democrats must be more willing to compromise on ideological differences for the sake of electability and, thus, political power. In Texas, James Talarico has emerged victorious in the primaries, defeating Representative Jasmine Crockett. With the party's moderates winning over the progressive wing, the Democrats' playbook for winning elections is obvious. Run moderate Democrats in Republican states and run progressive Democrats in Democratic states. For any Democrat to win in Republican states like Alaska and Texas, they must offer disaffected Republicans an acceptable alternative. 

With President Trump’s approval ratings hitting new lows amidst economic turmoil over reckless tariff policies and an unnecessary Iran war, Democrats must offer an alternative but tolerable platform by demonstrating their commitment to bipartisanship by running to the center. Although bipartisanship may sound naive, as Republicans have shifted the Overton window beyond acceptable political discourse, voters fundamentally desire to feel visible and heard in a government of the people, by the people, for the people. The perception of Democrats, as coastal urban elites who are out of touch with the average working-class American family, must be rehabilitated by enforcing a platform of a return to normalcy through backing party moderates. Candidates like Peltola and Talarico are a means for Democrats to manage public relations and ensure Americans understand the failures of Republican governance.